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2014 Scottish independence referendum

Panelbase: ‘No’ 52%-48%

17 Sep, 2014

The final Panelbase poll before the referendum shows that the No campaign is leading by 52% compared with 48% for Yes. This excludes undecided voters, who make up 5%. Panelbase:

We asked undecided voters to imagine that they were standing in the polling booth, and slightly more said they would vote No than Yes. Adding them to the original decided totals produces a result of Yes 47%, No 53%.

In supplementary poll questions, 35% say they believe Yes is likely to win, an increase of 7 points, and 40% believe it will be No, a decrease of 15 points:

It seems likely that this result will have been influenced by a general tightening of poll results.