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2014 Scottish independence referendum

Undecided votes don’t affect polls

17 Sep, 2014

Market research firm Ipsos MORI says the approximately 10% of voters that have consistently said in polls that they are undecided on independence shouldn’t present a challenge to the survey providers – when questioned on which way they are leaning, they split down the middle and move the outcome by less than 0.1 point. A bigger challenge is whether one side’s supporters are more likely to turn out than the other’s – the younger, working-class demographic of Yes voters would usually be more susceptible to not showing up on the day, but the grassroots campaign and once-in-a-lifetime nature of the referendum mean turnout may well be in line with expectations. Finally, it says that some No voters may be refusing to participate in surveys – however this would result in a larger-than-expected No vote.