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Sam Altman

Bubble Talk bet

24 Mar, 2015

Altman discusses recent talk of a bubble in Silicon Valley valuations:

I’m tired of reading about investors and journalists claiming there’s a bubble in tech.  I understand that it’s fun to do and easy press, but it’s boring reading.  I also understand that it might scare newer investors away and bring down valuations, but there’s got to be a better way to win than that…Investors that think companies are overpriced are always free not to invest.  Eventually, the market will find its clearing price.

He then opens a bet saying that, to win, he must be right on all three counts by Jan 1, 2020: 1) the value of the top six “unicorns” will rise from $100 billion to $200 billion 2) Some mid-stage YC companies will rise in value from $9 billion to $27 billion and 3) the Winter 2015 batch to rise in value from $0 to $3 billion.

This bet is open to the first VC who would like to take it (though it is not clear to me anyone who wants to take the other side should be investing in startups.)  The loser donates $100,000 to a charity of the winner’s choice.