Ferguson: ‘No’
Ferguson says that independence could disenfranchise Scottish nationals living in other parts of the UK:
800,000 Scots, like me, live and work in other parts of the UK. We don’t live in a foreign country; we are just in another part of the family of the UK. Scots living outside Scotland but inside the UK might not get a vote in the referendum, but we have a voice and we care deeply about our country.
Times poll: ‘Yes’ 51%-49%
A poll by YouGov for The Times shows Yes voters ahead of No voters by 51%-49%. This is the first time the spread has favored Yes in YouGov’s polling. YouGov:
In the past four weeks support for the union has drained away at an astonishing rate. The Yes campaign has not just invaded No territory; it has launched a blitzkrieg.
The shift follows stronger campaigning by First Minister Salmond and Yes Scotland:
These findings suggest that Salmond has achieved three things. First he has neutralised the fear factor. Many Scots thought independence too risky – for example, the uncertainty over Scotland’s currency, and the prospects for jobs and investment … Second, he has played the Sassenach card with great skill. Almost half of all Scots fear that a No vote would leave their country at the mercy of policies they don’t like, imposed by London … Third, Salmond’s team is thought to have been far more impressive. The No campaign has turned off large numbers of voters. By two-to-one, Scots say Better Together has been negative – and by the same margin, they feel Yes Scotland has been generally positive. This sense that Salmond is offering an optimistic future has energised younger, Labour and working class voters who have switched to Yes in the hope of more progressive policies that London can’t stop.
Pound, shares fall
0 CommentsThe pound falls to a 10-month low after a YouGov poll for The Times becomes the first definitive survey to show the Yes movement leading ahead of the Scottish independence referendum, albeit by a narrow 51%-49% margin. The pound falls 1.3% against the U.S. dollar to $1.611, and falls 1% against the euro to 1.2488 euros. A Barclays research note says the independence vote is only ‘the opening chapter’:
[There will be] uncertainty over issues ranging from the timelines for political and economic independence, resultant institutional frameworks, lender of last resort for Scotland, the division of assets and liabilities, fiscal impact and policies, and what currency choices Scotland will have available and choose.
Stocks lose billions
0 CommentsA selloff by investors wipes billions of dollars off the value of Scottish-linked company shares in a single day. It comes after a YouGov/Times poll shows a small lead for the Yes campaign for the first time ahead of the independence referendum. Deutsche Bank to clients:
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Scottish-based company shares lose an initial 4.8 billion pounds ($7.8 billion) intraday. The losses narrow later in the trading day to 2.6 billion pounds after Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) starts the sale of its U.S. trading arm. Trevor Greetham, a director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment:
The selloff is starting to feel overdone.
Edinburgh-based Standard Life closes 2.43% lower, RBS ends down 1.3% and Lloyds Banking Group falls 2.43%. Perth-based energy supplier SSE, Glasgow pumps specialist Weir Group and fund manager Aberdeen Asset Management all fall between 1% and 2.25%. Alistair Cotton, corporate trader at Currencies Direct warns of further pain:
Markets don’t like uncertainty. We can expect at least a 5% drop in the pound in the face of a Yes vote – and it could be considerably more.
‘Home Rule’
Brown promises ‘a modern form of Home Rule’ in Scotland if voters choose No:
Labour since Keir Hardie has been the Party of Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom so the plan for a stronger Scottish Parliament we seek agreement on is for nothing else than a modern form of Scottish Home Rule within the United Kingdom.
The plan is to devolve powers over borrowing, the work program, housing benefit, land use and income tax. Brown says an accelerated timetable envisages the ‘starting gun’ being fired on the process within a day of a No vote the referendum, a paper published by the coalition government in October, an agreement by November, and a new Scotland Bill in January:
Quite simply, Scottish voters deserve to know to the fullest extent possible about how new powers as ambitious as possible will be delivered as soon as possible within the UK. And so we are demanding a tight-timetable with tough deadlines and streamlined procedures.
Global Times editorial
The Chinese Global Times newspaper publishes an editorial warning against the risks of Scottish independence to the UK:
If Scotland gains independence, the UK will descend from a first-class country to a second-rate one, which will once again break the balance within Europe. And its consequence may even wield influence upon international geopolitics. The UK will become the biggest loser if such a scenario transpires. The elite of London have begun to feel panicked due to these potential risks and no longer wear an expression of pride for delivering the fate of Scotland to more than 5 million people through the vote on independence.
Cameron also stands to lose:
If Scottish independence happens, Cameron will likely become a ‘sinner’ of history for the UK.
‘Colonial tongue’
0 CommentsThe Kurdistan Tribune says in an editorial that Britain is using its ‘colonial tongue’ to frighten Scots from voting for independence, which it says the country has done elsewhere:
More than three decade ago, in 1980, when the Zanu party won the election in Zimbabwe, the British colonialists of the day were devastated and the conservative nationalist prime minister Margret Thatcher found it very hard to accept. Zanu advocated independence and the eradication of white domination. The British had fought to maintain white supremacy in the country the whites called ‘Rhodesia’ (after the imperialist Cecil Rhodes) while indigenous Zimbabweans wanted independence.
While Mugabe has become a tyrant, ‘at that time he delivered the aspirations of the people.’ It notes that under the Sykes-Picot Agreement, part of Kurdistan went to the British – and Kurdistan is now the largest stateless nation in the world due to century-old colonial agendas. It says the UK government’s warnings of a four-billion-pound devaluation, loss of the NHS and other risks are intended to frighten:
The British should stop scaremongering and accept whatever Scotland wants. The British must accept the wishes of the Scottish people, if they choose to exercise their right to self-determination and have their own homeland, and lose the colonial tongue.
Local recounts could delay result
0 CommentsAlthough there will be no national recount allowed, chief counting officers in each of the 32 regional centers are able to request local recounts. This could delay the overall result. National chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly says local recounts are a possibility…
…if somebody has raised an issue about the process that has been used to count the papers.
No national recount
0 CommentsNo national recount will be allowed in the referendum once local election officials have accepted totals in their counting areas. National chief counting officer Mary Pitcaithly says that once local results are declared, the votes are sealed in boxes:
[You] cannot open them up again, even if it ends up being very, very close.
The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 also states that votes cannot be recounted after a final result has been declared, even if neither side achieves a clear majority, with the rules of the referendum stating that either side is able to achieve victory by simple majority – a majority of one vote or more. Pitcaithly:
When I declare the result … I will do so with confidence, however close it may be, because I will have confidence in the 32 totals that comprise the result.
Votes transported by boat, helicopter
0 CommentsTransport logistics are challenging for some of the 32 counting areas for the independence referendum, and how soon the votes can be delivered to the national counting center will depend on geography and weather. Some of the counting areas are urban centers with good transport links, but others are remote and reachable only by boat or by air – Comhairle nan Eilean Siar, the Western Isles council, plans to use a helicopter to deliver its ballot boxes. An Electoral Management Board for Scotland document:
[…] Whatever logistical and transport plans and contingencies are put in place, weather or road conditions may delay the receipt of ballot boxes at a count. This would delay that count and, as a consequence, the overall national result.
Guardian poll: ‘No’ 51%-49%
A survey by ICM for The Guardian finds that 51% plan to vote No on independence and 49% plan to vote Yes. The figures exclude voters who say they are undecided, 17% of the total. Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins says the support for Yes is the highest recorded by ICM:
This will spur on everybody who wants and is working hard for a Yes to redouble their efforts.
Better Together campaign director Blair MacDougall:
This is the third poll in a row to show the No campaign in the lead, but this fight for the future of Scotland will go right down to the wire.
YouGov poll: No 52%-48%
A survey by YouGov for The Times and The Sun finds that the Scottish public favor remaining in the UK by 52% compared with 48% who want independence. The numbers exclude undecided voters. YouGov says the reversal in the margin from its previous week’s Times poll – which showed Yes ahead for the first time, at 51%-49% – is due to Brown joining the debate:
Shortly before he stepped down as Prime Minister, Tony Blair warned David Cameron to beware ‘Gordon Brown’s great clunking fist.’ Cameron survived it, but Alex Salmond’s bid for Scottish independence may not. Since Brown entered the debate, the Yes bandwagon, which has been rolling so dramatically, has stalled. His warnings that independence would be bad for jobs and family finances have struck home.
YouGov’s three previous polls each showed Yes climbing in support, although Yes remains at a higher level than at any point up to late August.
Branson: Stronger together
Branson says the UK provides strength against global uncertainty:
Do I think it would be the end of the world if Scotland was to leave the UK? No – people certainly won’t be losing their lives over it. But I do believe Scotland can have the best of both worlds by staying in the UK.
The referendum is in contrast with the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine:
We are very lucky that in the UK we are able to openly debate and that Scotland is able to democratically decide its future.
Branson’s wife is from Glasgow, his mother and grandparents are from Edinburgh, and he visits family in Scotland as well as Virgin’s Scottish companies:
On a personal basis I would love to see Scotland stay as part of the UK. As a businessman, considering Scotland’s economy, prosperity and security, I think it is imperative it stays in the Union.
Voting to #StayTogether means more power for Scotland, coupled with more security & strength as part of UK http://t.co/XCceQquFMa #IndyRef
— Richard Branson (@richardbranson) September 18, 2014
Telegraph poll: ‘Yes’ 54%-46%
0 CommentsAn ICM Research poll of 705 Scottish voters for the Sunday Telegraph indicates that the public favors independence by a margin of 49% to 42%. Once ‘don’t know’ votes are removed, ‘Yes’ votes total 54%-46%, with the eight-percentage-point margin the largest spread recorded in any major poll. It finds that 69% say Scotland ‘should be able to keep the pound sterling(£) if the country votes to leave the UK in the referendum.’ Voters are divided on the issue of whether the Scottish economy would be damaged, at 37% vs. 36% who say it would benefit. Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins:
We are working flat out to ensure that we achieve a Yes vote, because it’s the biggest opportunity the people of Scotland will ever have to build a fairer society and more prosperous economy.
Observer poll: ‘No’ 53%-47%
An Opinium poll for The Observer of 1,055 eligible Scottish voters over the age of 16 finds that voters favor remaining in the UK by 53% to 47% once undecided voters are excluded. Among all Scottish voters who are 10/10 certain to vote, 45% would vote to leave the union, 49% would vote to stay and 6% are undecided. Voters are highly unlikely to change their minds – 93% of No voters say they are certain to vote that way and 90% of Yes voters are certain to vote Yes. 70% of No voters are concerned about the ability of an independent Scottish government to meet financial commitments such as health of pensions, what currency Scotland would use (52%) and the possible effect on their living standards (40%). 61% of Yes voters are concerned about continued rule from the UK parliament in Westminster, 55% say UK political parties may not deliver on promises of more devolution of government, and 32% are concerned about Conservative politicians having too much influence on Scottish affairs.
Survation poll: ‘No’ 54%-46%
0 CommentsA Survation poll of 1,044 Scottish voters for the Better Together campaign finds that 47% favor staying in the UK while 40.8% want independence from the union. When undecided voters are excluded, the numbers round to 54% no vs. 46% yes. It finds that 40% say they and their families would be financially worse off while 27% believe they would be better off. The survey points to a very high turnout with 93% of voters saying they are certain to vote.
Groundskeeper Willie: ‘Yes’
Groundskeeper Willie of The Simpsons comes out in favor of independence, in a video released by Fox:
Both sides of this argument have valid points: the freedom-loving heirs of highland tradition, and those who enjoy crawling like worms beneath British boots.
Willie nominates himself to lead the independent nation rather than the ‘safe choice’ of First Minister Salmond:
I won’t back down to world leaders, because I don’t know who they are and I’m not willing to learn! Also, I’ve lived in America most of my life, so I’ve seen firsthand how not to run a country.
‘Once-in-a-generation vote’
First Minister Salmond says that he will not hold another referendum if Scotland votes No to independence on Sept. 18. He notes that the most recent constitutional referendum in Scotland took place in 1997 and 1979, and says that this timeframe represents a ‘political generation’:
My view is this is a once in a generation, perhaps even a once in a lifetime, opportunity for Scotland.
Queen Elizabeth: ‘Think carefully’
Queen Elizabeth tells a crowd outside Crathie Kirk near Balmoral:
I hope everybody thinks very carefully about the future.
She declines to make an official statement.