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Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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13 May, 2015

Three agencies report El Nino return

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Three meteorological agencies on the Pacific Rim (The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, United States Climate Prediction Centre and Japan Meteorological Agency) agree that the El Nino weather phenomenon, which can spark deadly and costly climate extremes, will return strongly this year. The Japan Meteorological Agency has forecast that it would continue into late 2015, but there is no consensus between the three agencies over how long it will last, as they each have their own criteria for the phenomena. Commercial forecasters also have their own opinions, which also diverge. The U.S. Climate Prediction Centre says there is a 70 percent chance the pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. The Australian weather bureau says:

We know that once an El Nino event’s established, it’s very likely to last through to the end of the year.