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Study warning of Ebola ‘explosion’ questioned

23 Oct, 2014

A study in Lancet Infectious Diseases warns of 171,000 cases of the virus in Montserrado county by Dec. 15, 12% of the country’s population, with over 90,000 fatalities. The study depends on the assumptions that every person with Ebola will infect 2.49 other people, and that health measures in Montserrado will remain unchanged. It says that if 4,800 beds are installed at treatment centres in November and health workers speed up fivefold the detection rate of Ebola cases, 77,312 cases could be averted. Health experts say the situation on the ground is changing. Doctor:

It’s too early to say whether the ongoing and intense control efforts in Monrovia have yet achieved control or merely slowed the epidemic, but what is being seen on the ground is clearly incompatible with the results in this paper.

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